Brexit Special
Brexit Special – Coast Communications, 30th June
So here we are. A few mornings after THAT night before. Britain has voted Brexit in a campaign memorable more for hysteria than quality.
Brexit For The Country - David Cameron, in resigning, did 2 crucial things. Firstly, he delayed his departure until his successor is elected. This has allowed No.10 to work with the Treasury and the Bank of England to provide much needed stability to initially jittery markets. Secondly, he delayed using prerogative powers to trigger Article 50. This makes sense strategically and Oliver Letwin is currently preparing some initial research on the options available for a Brexit model ready for the new PM’s arrival. It does however allow those who oppose Brexit to reflect on how best to use what are unclear constitutional arrangements. The drafting of the Scotland Act looks particularly ambiguous in retrospect in terms of whether Holyrood needs to approve repeal of the EU Act...whilst some in parliament will suggest the decision to trigger Article 50 should rest with the House as opposed to the PM. Expect complications.
Brexit For The Economy - The misjudged emergency budget the Chancellor suggested would be needed unsurprisingly failed to materialise, although even the most optimistic Brexiter accepts growth forecasts are likely to slow in the short term; resulting in further austerity or tax rises. Various credit ratings agencies have downgraded the UK, although we remain a safe bet according to the experts and our guilt yield hit an all-time low in the days following Brexit. This, alongside the £250bn the BoE has offered to shore up the economy and keep finance fluid, will hopefully reassure initially sceptical investors. The markets meanwhile underwent a serious and entirely expected correction, having bet on the house of remain. However, at the time of writing, both the FTSE 100 and the 250 are trading above where they were before this all began. If economic armageddon is to befall us, it's not arrived yet...
Brexit For The Conservatives - The leadership contest will be mercifully swift. A result will be known by early September. Michael Gove announcing his intention to stand has now forced Boris Johnson’s hand. His decision against running will have relieved many in the party, but outraged others. This has undoubtedly strengthened Theresa May’s position, but the other candidates will be seeking to capitalise on the latest turn of events. Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid have teamed up to offer what they're calling a blue collar conservative choice....Liam Fox will no doubt offer a voice for the unflinching brexiteers. Jeremy Hunt and Nicky Morgan, at the time of writing, were taking soundings on a second referendum and more centrist platform respectively and John Baron is also considering a run from the traditional wing of the party. Osborne is out...but wants to play a role in the next government. The big question is what does Andrea Leadsom do...if any camp fails to offer her a serious role, she just may go for the top prize.
Brexit For Labour - The Labour Party has imploded. Mr Corbyn faced and lost a vote of no confidence and the indignity of losing over 30 ministers in a mass resignation drive. Angela Eagle has emerged from the pack as the one to formally challenge him, although Owen Smith may also seek the leadership should it become an option. There is some dispute on whether Corbyn will need the required signatures to make the ballot. Should he get there, the grassroots will make dethroning him extremely difficult and Momentum have already indicated its intention to support their man again.
Lastly. The tragic death of Jo Cox shocked not just Westminster, but the entire country. She was not “just another politician”. She was a human being, like all of us, prepared to try and make a difference.
For other news this month please see the June 2016 newsletter